Scottish Agricultural Activity Projections

Tender description

1. The Rural and Environmental Science, and Analytical Services (RESAS) Division within Scottish Government wishes to commission work to estimate the future output of major Scottish agricultural commodities (beef, dairy and sheep livestock numbers and wheat and barley for arable) for the years up to 2045. Lot 1: 2. The Rural & Environment Science and Analytical Services (RESAS) division in Scottish Government undertake analysis on Scottish agriculture across a wide range of different topics and policy areas to provide evidence-based advice on agriculture. The topics can range from trade deals and scenarios as a result of Brexit to potential future policy developments under the Agriculture Reform Programme to advising on scenarios up until 2045 under the Climate Change Plan. RESAS often needs to model these impacts into the future, so it is key that we have robust, up-to-date, evidence-based projections of a business as usual (BAU) scenario. 3. Presently, the best available projections for Scottish Government to use come from the FAPRI-UK model, based on projections carried out in 2022 covering the years 2021-2031. Since these estimates were produced a number of market forces have changed so updating these is key to give us an up-to-date sense of the most likely direction of travel for agricultural activity. Reliable projections are necessary so we can understand and adequately advise on future agricultural activity and impacts.