Climate Adaptation Research and Modelling

Tender description

Brief - North York Moors climate adaptation The North York Moors National Park Authority requires, as part of its forward management planning for the park, to have a broad idea of how climate change (temperature and precipitation) will impact on land use across the North York Moors over the next 50 -80 years. Using climate modelling to forecast and better understand how climate change will affect vegetation and specific upland species - particularly birds - and postulate how land use might change will be the core of this work. The work would consider 2 scenarios: (1) seeing how the landscape might look and respond in 50 -80 years if land use didn't change, and (2) seeing what the landscape may look like in 50-80 years if natural regeneration and reduced disturbance were allowed alongside species introduction of native species. The Authority is also interested to explore how climate change will impact ecosystem functions for a range of land-use scenarios. An illustration of the landscape under both scenarios should be produced which can be used to stimulate debate and discussion with the relevant stakeholders about nature recovery and land management in the park. Timetable: The indicative time frame is 12 months from January 2023 to December 2023. Deliverables: The work will deliver a report to the client including, maps, 3D visualisations and artistic renders.