Developing trajectories for forward indicators of the UK's heat pump supply chains

Tender description

The transition to Net Zero requires changes that go beyond the deployment-related metrics we have tended to track in our progress monitoring to date. We are seeking to broaden our assessment of real-world progress, including underlying enablers of policy delivery such as supply chain and skills developments, public attitudes, corporate commitments, funding and finance and governance. The Government's Heat and Buildings Strategy and the Net Zero Strategy outline a policy framework that aims to substantially reduce emissions from buildings over the next 15 years: • The Government has adopted a clear direction for heat decarbonisation which confronts the key challenge of this decade: to grow demand for low carbon heat (both heat pumps and district heating) and scale up supply chains while developing hydrogen as an option. This will be done alongside nationwide programmes to improve the energy efficiency of buildings. • The Government's intention is to use a market-based approach to drive the adoption of low carbon heat. This requires obligations on suppliers, manufacturers and property owners, backed up with funding in key areas. These ambitions are supported by a suite of new policies that aim to enable the transition, providing detail on skills, finance, innovation, and standards. Under the Government's market-based approach, heat pump installations should scale up by 2028, but wouldn't be expected to take off before the new mechanism comes in, in 2024. Continuing to focus our progress monitoring on tracking heat pump deployment wouldn't tell us how the market is developing ahead of scale up. 'Forward' indicators of preparedness, or enablers of delivery, need to be tracked to provide a more complete picture of underlying progress. **** See Specification for more detail ****