Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Market: Supply Scenario and Contracting Research

Tender description

BEIS is considering running a lotted, open competition for the delivery of the following indicative research activities: Project 1a: LNG Market Response Aim: To provide evidence on the availability of LNG to Europe this year and the additional LNG that could be available during a market shock. Outputs to be delivered: - Analysis of global LNG production and outlook. - Analysis on how much LNG could be available to Europe if Russia disrupted pipeline supply. Include estimates of gas-to-coal substitution in Asia under different scenarios and demand destruction due to higher prices. - Analysis of expected levels of gas-to-coal switching which reduce Asian LNG demand Project 1b: European Modelling Aim: Create scenarios to model European energy security this winter and understand whether Europe can access enough LNG to mitigate a disruption. Outputs to be delivered: - Evidence-based assumptions on demand, indigenous production, storage, pipeline and non-pipeline supply in Europe this winter. Provide monthly supply-demand balances. - Scenarios that flex these assumptions to understand the role that LNG can play to mitigate Russian gas disruption and potential supply shortfalls in Europe. Estimated budget required for Project 1& b: ~£50k Project 2: LNG Contracting Aim: To improve our understanding of how LNG contracts are structured and provide an assessment on whether we should expect the LNG market to continue to operate during a significant supply side shock. Outputs to be delivered: - Discussion of LNG contract structures and their evolution over time. Including differences in structures between Europe and Asia. - Explanation about what terms are included in different types of LNG contracts and the cost implications - Estimates of the proportion of different types of contracts in the market (fixed vs flexible). - Analysis on how flexible the LNG market is in response to supply shocks, including feasibility & scenarios in which we could see termination of fixed contracts. Estimated budget required for Project 2: ~£30k These above areas and cost estimates provided are all subject to change and review prior to if any competition is published. If a procurement is decided upon, it is likely that the duration the competition is out to tender will be short and as such, the likely questions asked for evaluation will be focused on bidder's applicable experience and approach. Organisations interested in responding to any future competition, should it materialise, should consider their likely approach to delivering the above outputs. Organisations are recommended to register on BEIS' procurement platform here: https://beisgroup.ukp.app.jaggaer.com/ which is used to host BEIS procurement opportunities. Any organisation wishing to receive any notification on future tender opportunities relating to this potential requirement may email internationalclimateandenergy.procurement@beis.gov.uk, to ensure email notification is sent.