CAMS_63 Development of post-processing methods and tools for the CAMS regional air quality ensemble

Tender description

This ITT is about activities to develop post-processing methods and tools for the CAMS Regional Products, which are based upon a distributed ensemble of seven individual operational regional air quality systems (the number of systems will be extended to nine in the course of 2019). The successful Tenderer will be expected to deliver (essentially) computer scripts, routines and pieces of numerical code as well as reports. The ITT targets Tenderers with relevant experience, who will be able to provide the above-mentioned contributions for supporting the continuous upgrade of the post-processing of CAMS regional outputs. The ITT does not include daily operational production but may include routine experimental processing (without guaranteed level of service). The bids shall not involve actually running regional air quality system(s). The successful Tenderer shall provide some studies and developments, which build on top of the raw outputs from the operational ensemble of CAMS Regional Systems. The focus of these developments shall be: - to assess the relationship between the spread between ensemble members and the skill of the analyses or forecasts according to a range of metrics, in view of being able to provide calibrated uncertainty estimates; - to develop post-processing methods using latest or past forecasts, past analyses and/or past observations to propose ensemble products that outperform significantly the median, while being compatible with operational time-critical implementation; - to develop and test Model Output Statistics methods that could be used for providing forecasts on sites where timeseries of observations are available even if the raw model outputs are biased; - to develop innovative ways of conveying uncertainty information associated with the Regional Products in graphical form (maps, charts...) for presentation on the web and targeting non-expert audiences. Portal instructions: In order to allow potential bidders to get a better understanding of the service tendered before committing to it, some of the ITT documents are accessible under the ‘Attachments’ box at bottom right of this page. The full set of ITT documents and relevant questions are only accessible by registering an interest in this opportunity (see the 'Expression of interest window' at top right). Please refer initially to the ‘ECMWF eProcurement Portal Guidance for suppliers’ file in the Attachments box as this document will help you navigate the portal and locate the necessary information in order to submit a proposal. Please note that the contact email address shown under 'Contact details' is not monitored, and any messages sent to this email address will not be attended to. Questions / clarifications concerning this ITT must be submitted via the Messaging area of the ITT, which can be accessed through the My Activities page of the Portal once you have logged-in and registered your interest in this opportunity. Keywords: climate, atmosphere, CAMS