Development of financial model compliant with FAST modelling standard

Tender description

For PR14 Ofwat developed a financial model in partnership with PwC. The PR14 financial model had three purposes. • To determine the wholesale price controls. • To calculate the revenues arising from the retail price controls. • To help assess financeability of the appointee, with the ability to refine the wholesale price control limits until target financeability indicators are satisfied. The model went through significant development during the price review process, with six versions of the financial model being published. Ofwat has rebuilt the PR14 Financial Model in accordance with the FAST modelling standard. The rebuilt model replicates the core calculations of the PR14 financial model in a simpler structure. This model replicates very closely the allowed revenue and financeability indicator results from PR14. The design approach for the redesigned model uses a reduced set of live financial statements with phases turned on and off with 'flags'. The rebuilt model will provide a solid framework for implementing the modelling changes required to reflect Ofwat's developing Water 2020 methodology. Objectives and scope of the work The primary purpose of this work is to continue the development of the rebuilt, simplified, financial model in a way that is compliant with the FAST modelling standard. The work will cover the period November 2016 - 24 February 2017, the Project Manager will keep the timeframe under review and where necessary may opt to extend the timeframe. The work will focus on six areas: • RPI / CPI (H) - to enable the model to deal with two forms of indexation • Separate RCVs - Create multiple RCV accounts to track guaranteed balances and RPI and CPI(H) indexed balances • 4 x wholesale controls - Bifurcate water and wastewater controls. • Monte Carlo analysis - Establish architecture to implement @risk analysis of key variables. • Sensitivity analysis - Establish architecture for sensitivity analysis. • Improve notionalisation - PR14 used a lengthy process (detailed in the PR14 financial model user guide) to move from actual to notional capital structure. The aim of this work is to streamline this process. The model is expected to make minimal use of macros and to make minimal use of named ranges (in accordance with FAST standard "FAST 3.03-08").