‘Building a Sustainable Welsh Food System’ Part 3 – Economic & Social/Culture Impact Assessment of A

Tender description

Purpose and Scope of Work WWF Cymru is seeking to build on a recently completed assessment of the biophysical capacity of food production in Wales to transition to a fully agroecological net zero pathway by 2050. This work consisted of the formulation of a computer model that projected the likely impact of a full agroecological shift on existing food production; the resultant impact on territorial and total greenhouse gas emissions/sequestration; and the potential to diversify production to better reflect Welsh nutritional needs . To develop these results further, WWF Cymru now wishes to refine a series of scenarios (examples provided below) to allow the model to be rerun, and then to undertake a wider economic & social/cultural analysis of the results. The aim of this work is to produce a series of assessed transition pathways that show both the likely impact on food production, carbon emissions/sequestration, and the obtainment of dietary needs; and the likely impact they would have if pursued on the rural Welsh economy and society out to 2050. The results will be used to inform Welsh Government policy and the wider sustainable land management discourse in Wales to foster positive changes in agricultural support and wider rural investment. Potential Scenarios The scenarios will be developed by the successful bidder in agreement with WWF Cymru and based on the limitations of the existing model . However, our initial views are that the following should be considered: Historic Welsh Government Target (Low Carbon Plan 1) • Welsh agriculture transitions so far as is sufficient to result in a territorial direct agriculture sector emissions reduction of 36% (on 1990 baseline) by 2050. Land of Plenty Target (Balanced) • Welsh agriculture transitions so far as is sufficient to result in a territorial direct agriculture sector emissions reduction of 35% by 2030, and 51% by 2050 on 2018 baseline. Furthermore, an all-agricultural emission (including scope 3 emissions from artificial fertiliser and soy feed)) reduction of 34% by 2030 and 53% (2018 baseline) by 2050. Land of Plenty Target (Sheep farming Focus) • Welsh agriculture transitions so far as is sufficient to result in the above Land of Plenty scenario, yet efforts are made to maximise sheep numbers within the land’s environmental carrying capacity. Economic & Social/Cultural Analysis Once the models have been designed and run the successful bidder will be required to undertake an economic and social/cultural analysis of each – along with the existing ‘full agroecological shift’ run of the model. In addition to these model runs the successful bidder will also need to draw on Welsh Government’s existing Impact Assessment of their proposed Sustainable Farming Scheme transition and that of their ‘status-quo’ projection. The parameters of this analysis are to be agreed between WWF Cymru and the successful bidder, but we expect the following (non-exhaustive) factors to be considered: • The amount of gross investment needed to realise the different pathways, and how much of that value can be retained in Wales • Agricultural sector annual FTE employment creation potential (both on farm and wider ancillary actives) • Macro-economic impact (GVA, GDP) • Local economic spend and rural economic potential (eg recreation & sequestration) • Farm input costs, income (from existing and new ‘products’) and overall profitability and productivity • Potential skills gaps and training needs • Impact on farm numbers and size • Collective impact on the Welsh language and sector demographics • Likely sectorial physical and mental health impacts • Likely impact on environmental benefits - water & air quality, plus flood regulation (to include e.g. avoided water treatment costs) • High level biodiversity and carbon sequestration assessment Outputs: WWF Cymru requires the analysis to be presented in the form of a written report which contains the assessment for each scenario. Thes