NCF: Net Zero - Timber in Construction

Tender description

NCF: Net Zero - Timber in Construction Further research on the whole life carbon impacts of timber in construction is required to understand the size of the opportunity for carbon savings and to shape future policy. There is a lack of comprehensive analysis at the building or national level of the whole life carbon impacts of increasing the use of timber in construction, with existing evidence being partial or outdated. In particular, the carbon impacts of disposing of timber products at end of life are an evidence gap. The proposed research is split into two work packages:- Work package 1: At the building level, assess the whole life carbon impacts for timber constructed buildings vs conventional build alternatives. The assessment should build upon existing literature and, to the extent possible: • Compare different residential and commercial building archetypes (eg: 6-12 different housing types + typical commercial buildings). This will involve developing high-level designs and material quantity estimates based on common floor plans • Fully assess product, construction, operational and end of life/ beyond life-cycle carbon impacts (including the potential for net negativity) for these building archetypes – i.e. provide estimates for all modules A1 to D of the system boundaries defined by British Standard (BS) European Standard (EN) 15978:2011. Synergies with ongoing work with UNEP/Lifecycle Initiative’s work on Biogenic Carbon should be explored. • The analysis should assess a minimum of three different alternatives for building approaches: o Conventional masonry build o Timber frame build o Timber frame build with use of other wood products also maximised (eg: timber cladding, non-frame timber, wood-based insulation material) o Mass timber • Analyse the carbon impacts of different timber sources including changes in Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) emissions, depending on the source (including, but not limited to, primary forests, native forests, uncertified forests, sustainably managed forests, recycled/reused timber). Sources of timber should include international timber supply and the contractor should engage the timber supply chain to sense-check assumptions. • Assess carbon impacts across a range of possible product life cycles. Eg: consideration should be given to the impact on carbon of different production and disposal methods. • Identify the key variables that affect the figures, which may include: o Assessment methodology – e.g. RICs methodology, dynamic life cycle assessments (as used in France) o Building type and size o Longevity of buildings o Different methods of product transport, disposal o Comparison between domestic wood product supply and imports • Identify any evidence gaps or areas where data needs improving and include recommendations on how to improve data. This could include recommendations on further steps and evidence that is needed to underpin policy. Synergies with research commissioned by Department for Energy Security and Net Zero on lifecycle assessments of construction productions can be exploited. Work package 2: At the national level, assess how much additional whole life carbon would be stored by 2050 under a range of scenarios for how timber usage in construction may change into the future to enable quantification of potential savings against the Government’s Net Zero pathway. The assessment should: • Construct a range of scenarios for the proportion of new builds that will utilize each building approach from Work Package 1, in 2023 and 2050, building upon resource efficiency assumptions already developed by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. • Base scenarios on plausible timber/biomass availability projections that can be sourced from other authoritative reports or sources. • Account for fire constraints and other risks associated with TiC that may restrict timber use when building scenarios. This can be facilitated through cooperation with ongoing Whole Life Carbon research funded by Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities. • Create scenarios for how whole life carbon impact of common construction materials may change in the future, based on plausible industry decarbonisation scenarios. These can be constructed in conjunction with internal Department for Energy Security and Net Zero modelling. • Using the building level whole life carbon assessments and the future projections of decarbonisation, calculate the implied whole life carbon for each building archetype in 2050. • Aggregate the scenarios to create a national projection of potential whole life carbon impacts under each scenario. • Identify the key variables that affect the figures, including uncertainty in house building projections and future decarbonisation scenarios. Outputs: Key outputs from the work will include: • A detailed project plan, outlining key milestones and timelines for completing the work. • An interim technical report covering work package one. This will detail the whole life carbon impacts of each building approach (conventional masonry vs timber-frame vs timber-frame with other wood products maximized vs mass timber) for each building typology, with evidence sources clearly outlined. Results should be broken down for each stage/module of the whole life carbon assessment. The report should include an executive summary and key findings/conclusions. It should also identify any evidence gaps or areas where data needs improving and make high-level recommendations to address these gaps. • A final technical report covering work package two including a brief summary of work package one. This will detail the quantity of additional whole life carbon that may be stored by 2050. All underlying assumptions in the assessment should be detailed. The report should include an executive summary and key findings/conclusions. • A non-technical presentation after each work package to include a slide deck (or short report) that summarises findings and the analysis conducted for a more non-technical audience. • All quantitative data and analysis to be provided in a clearly disaggregated and easily accessible format (eg: in Excel) with inputs, variables, assumptions and sources clearly outlined to ensure full transparency and that calculations can be adapted in the future. The data should be shared in a format to be agreed with Defra prior to the finalized workplan being agreed and adhere to Government Modelling Integrity standards.