Analysis on the impact of future UK FTA scenarios on Scotland's Agricultural, Food and Drink Sector

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Introduction 1. The Rural and Environmental Science and Analytical Services (RESAS) Division within Scottish Government wishes to commission a project to model and quantify the impacts of different prospective UK Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on Scotland’s agricultural and food and drink sectors. Background & Context 2. Following its departure from the EU, the UK is in a position to negotiate and establish new FTAs with countries across the global. These future agreements and associated trading arrangements are likely to change the current status quo, as well as present new challenges and opportunities to Scotland’s agricultural and food and drink sectors. 3. Having already signed a free trade agreement with Japan, the UK Government has announced its priority to launch negotiations with the USA, Canada, India, Mexico, Australia and New Zealand. Additionally, its consideration in joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). 4. This provides a provisional list of nations to consider. However, other countries may be added as the UK Department for International Trade announces them. Scope /Statement of Requirement 5. To quantify the impact of prospective UK FTAs on key agricultural sectors, with particulars dependent on the trading party of interest. These could include sectors such as Beef, Sheep, Dairy, Potato and Cereal (Barley and Wheat). 6. Where possible, additional insight into the effects – be they direct and indirect – of these FTAs on Scotland’s Food and Drink manufacturing industries and the wider supply chain would be wanted. Such industries would include red meat processing, distilling and brewing.