Reference Class Forecasting Consultancy Engagement

Tender description

As set out in the Public Spending code, Reference class forecasting is a methodology to estimate project costs which attempts to mitigate optimism bias. It predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar interventions to that being forecast. It involves identifying a reference class of past similar projects, establishing a probability distribution for the selected reference class for the parameter that is being forecast, and then comparing the specific project with the reference class distribution