Research and development services and related consultancy services

Tender description

ECMWF, as the entrusted entity for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), issued a contract for the development of a prototype service for climate predictions targeting the time horizon of years to decades ahead. The objective of this framework agreement is to develop the prototype for a decadal prediction service of relevance to users. The work will cover 2 main topics: the development of robust, credible and reliable encoding standards for forecasts and products, resulting in recommendations for best practice in this respect and the analysis of a set of case studies to test the value of decadal predictions in applications of relevance to users from several sectors of economic activity. The technical work in the first category will consider standards from existing activities (like, for example, those used in the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), or at WMO’s Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Prediction) and current standards followed by C3S for other activities (like seasonal forecasts and climate projections). Discussions with the data-standard community will be initiated and will be facilitated through a workshop at the facilities of one of the partners in Barcelona. In addition, a robust definition of methods for post-processing of forecast data, including the generation of multi-model and the assessment of forecast quality, will be formulated into recommendations and provided to C3S at the end of the contract. These aspects will be illustrated using the DCPP-A simulations. The set of case studies will include contributions from each of the participants in the contract. Four examples have been identified: the first addresses the management of water level and water quality of the Upper catchment in North-Rhine-Westphalia; the second tests the potential for planning of crop yield; the third estimates the predictability of the risk associated with tropical and extra-tropical cyclones over the Atlantic basin and the fourth addresses the production of hydro- and solar power and solar in European regions. Each of the case studies will develop their application in collaboration with a specific user. Together, these 2 areas of work aim to achieve significant progress in the understanding of the potential value of decadal predictions to society and pave the way towards a decadal prediction service at C3S.