Discovery Phase – new Passenger Demand Forecasting System

Tender description

Why the Work is Being Done The Scope of this project is for the Department for Transport (DfT) on behalf of Passenger Demand Forecasting Council to define its requirements for a passenger demand forecasting system. DfT is seeking to procure a system that will be: open and modular; with DfT on behalf of PDFC having clear and sole ownership of all IPR; compliant with state of the art IT infrastructure and computer language; be easily installed and user friendly. Problem to Be Solved • Need for a system to provide the rail industry demand forecasting requirements; • Need for additional requirements with more innovative ways of achieving same or better results (language, IT architecture); • System flexibility and ease of use (less rigidity, user interface, multiple users); • Reduce limitations of the existing system (runtime, accessibility, network setup); • No reliance on proprietary code (CMS) and proprietary database software (Oracle), leading to significant management cost savings. Who Are the Users • Train operators use existing demand forecasting models to decide what best timetable for their network would be, and to decide types of trains should be used for each service • Most users predict demand and passenger revenue, especially after change of timetable, rail service operated, or rolling stock capacity • Government uses these models to decide whether projects to build more rail infrastructure, or buy more trains would be value for money • Bidders for rail franchise competitions use demand forecasting models to show the effects their proposed timetables may have, and DfT uses models to assess those bids Early Market Engagement Both Rail Delivery Group (RDG) and DfT have commissioned independent model and code reviews of the leading current demand forecasting model, known as MOIRA2.2. The language and functionality was independently reviewed. Additionally, work has been pulled together on user lessons learnt, particularly for use in franchising. These studies are: • Source code review by Andrew Tomlinson ITS Leeds - 2017 • Source code review for DfT - 2017 • MOIRA2.2 review by Leigh Fisher - 2017 • Lessons learned by Systra on CrossCountry franchise - 2018 Work Already Done Model users have developed a good understanding of how existing models work, and the use cases where an improvement of its functionality is crucial. An overall architectural review of MOIRA2.2 and its dependencies has been mapped out by DfT. The model is written in Delphi and needs to be upgraded to a language that make development and future iterations easier to manage. Existing Team • RDG Strategic Research and DfT Rail Analysis – business leads • RDG and DfT Procurement • RDG and DfT IT and Digital Architects • PDFC MOIRA2 working group – which cover stakeholder representatives from across industry Current Phase Not started Work Location The supplier will be required to split their time between the various users of demand forecasting models as well as allowing time for them to work at their own offices. It is anticipated that primary locations will be Rail Delivery Group offices EC1A 4HD and Department for Transport (Great Minster House SW1P 4DR and Windsor House SW1H OTL). Working Arrangments The supplier would be expected to engage closely with the existing team, as well as external stakeholders on a frequent basis to fully meet the requirements. This is a full-time, 5 days a week arrangement for 6-8 weeks. There are no expenses allowances associated with this work. Security Clearance As the team will need to access a central Government building, current basic security clearance (BPSS) for all team members is a mandatory requirement before contract award. Additional T&Cs Following Discovery, there will be a separate procurement exercise to progress the chosen Discovery option, looking to implement new system/s through Alpha and into Beta (subject to successful delivery of Alpha). There is potential that the successful Discovery supplier will remain on-board for a period to assist in providing client-side support and subject matter expertise through the transition into Alpha. This is subject to satisfactory completion of Discovery, a successful evaluation of the skill-set required and business needs. Skills & Experience Experience in delivering evidence-based research to inform a user-centred design, focus on user needs (including accessibility), end-to-end user journeys, motivations and goals. Demonstrable evidence of incorporating latest technologies to enhance product specifications, resulting in increased functionality and improved user experience. Experience of mathematical modelling and developing algorithmic models and their interfaces, and experience in transforming old models using new languages, technologies and approaches. Experience in designing secure and scalable solutions in cloud-based environments with appropriate data management and security access protocols Demonstrable evidence of excellent planning and communication, including robust risk management process and governance. Recent and demonstrable experience writing architectural diagrams and presenting detailed architectural dependencies, successfully delivering technical architecture design meeting clients’ business, digital drivers and objectives, and to inform future project stages Nice to Haves Demonstrable understanding and ability to deliver digital services/products to the Government Digital Service standards, working with users and stakeholders at all levels in large and complex organisations. Demonstrable evidence of using clear development methodologies, outlining how this would work in conjunction with a client’s internal development team. Experience at leading on a discovery phase for cross-sector across multiple partners, on a data-driven product including data-sharing protocol. Demonstrable understanding of the policy and approach the government and the data community are taking with data and open data and of the benefits this provides. Proven ability to support a flexible way of working, taking responsibility to make late changes to plans and re-formulating to maintain project progress against timeline. No. of Suppliers to Evaluate 5 Proposal Criteria Evidence that the proposed approach and methodology for discovery will successfully ascertain user needs and meet specified objectives for the discovery. (10%) Proposed plan of activities with clear deliverables and dates demonstrating the ability to complete the delivery of the discovery project within the required challenging timescales. (10%) Evidence of technical ability, skills and expertise to understand the complexity of the model and transform the solution into a secure, sustainable solution. (10%) Identification of key options, assumptions, dependencies, risk and issues, with robust approaches to addressing them. (5%) Evidence of how the proposal represents value for money for the buyer. (5%) Demonstration of appropriate approach to working with in-house teams with limited technical and Agile expertise. (5%) Proven knowledge and understanding of data security and access management in developing data solution, preferably in a cloud-based environment. (5%) Proposed supplier team structure, with evidence to demonstrate a strong team and how their skills and experience will deliver the required outcome. (10%) Cultural Fit Criteria Experience of transparent and collaborative decision making and problem solving capability (2.5%) Evidence where status quo has been challenged resulting in an improved final outcome. (2.5%) Proposed workable and flexible approach to co-location of the team within the buyer’s premises. (2.5%) Evidence demonstrating an ability to transfer knowledge & skills (2.5%) Payment Approach Capped time and materials Assessment Method Written proposal Case study Presentation Evaluation Weighting Technical competence 60% Cultural fit 10% Price 30% Questions from Suppliers Budget range budget range: £75,000 - £150,000