Research and development services and related consultancy services

Tender description

Proof of concept for an extreme events and attribution service. ECMWF as the Entrusted Entity for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) will issue an ITT for the development of a proof-of-concept “extreme events and attribution component” of its service portfolio. This service component will address the ever-growing demand from a wide range of stakeholders, including media and legal representatives, on understanding the relationship between recent extreme weather events and anthropogenic climate change. It is envisaged that this service component will provide a framework that allows end-to-end information about extreme events and how these relate to anthropogenic climate change. This end-to-end approach involves the whole chain from defining an event to the communication of the results, where part of the result is to clearly state what can and what cannot be said about the attribution of specific extreme events. The service component will include the setting up of a prototype fast track attribution service according to a peer-reviewed protocol for a small number of event types where attribution science can be deemed mature enough to do so, as well as the provision of peer-reviewed fact sheets for a larger selection of events for which attribution science is currently not mature enough. The prototype fast-track attribution service is to be tested and reviewed in retrospective ‘slow track’ mode. The service component will be guided by the broad vision of ultimately providing a service for Europe with the following attributes: — transparent — open access to all parts of the framework, — reliable — uses peer-reviewed methodologies and protocols, — high quality — undergoes regular control reviews. ECMWF aims to appoint an independent expert panel for ensuring the scientific integrity of the service component. The service needs to be embedded within the wider landscape, in particular it will support national attribution activities. As such, one task will be the development of a protocol on collaboration and communication conduct. It is expected that the final framework developed by the successful tenderer will represent a point of reference for providing end-to-end attribution services.