Understanding the drivers of historic graduate earnings, their evolution through the working lifetime, and forecasting future graduate earnings

Tender description

The Department for Education ('DfE') has commenced a programme to sell the English Pre-Browne ('Plan 1') Income Contingent Repayment ("ICR") loan book. These loans were made available to students on university or college higher education courses between September 1998 and September 2012, after which they were replaced (in England and Wales only) with Post-Browne ICR loans. UK Government Investments ('UKGI') is leading the sale programme on behalf of DfE, with modelling expertise and advice provided by the Government Actuary's Department. DfE launched the sale of the first tranche of the ICR loan book in February 2017, which completed in December 2017. A forecast model for Plan 1 loans, the Transition based Earnings & Repayment Model ('TERM'), has been developed to support the sale programme. TERM is based on a Markov transition model and projects Plan 1 borrower earnings and repayments on an annual basis. In order to support policy making in higher education, DfE has also developed a student loan repayment model and regularly publishes student loan forecasts. DfE and UKGI are keen to explore additional avenues that can deepen our understanding and ability to project borrower earnings. The objective of this research is to explore whether there are innovative methodologies (including statistical, data analytic techniques etc.) that could potentially enhance and/or complement current modelling of earnings and repayment trends of graduate that have an outstanding ICR student loan. Please note the deadline for EOIs is 5pm, Friday 7th September 2018