Seafood Market Model

Tender description

The aim of this study is to build a seafood multi-market trade model that will inform policy decisions for EU Exit and future fisheries management. The model will be flexible to changes in the UK supply of fish (UK quota), and to changes in the cost of trade (tariffs and non-tariff measures). This will involve the estimation of economic elasticities to model relationships for relevant species/species groups (or product groups) and will allow for responses in relevant markets. These specifications will be identified in the context of multi-regional or multi-country trade modelling as appropriate. These elasticities will form the basis for the model. The model will be owned by project funders on completion of the project. The model will contribute to our understanding of how the economic impact of scenarios would be distributed between the catching sector, fish processors, and consumers (changes in consumer and producer surplus), and in which countries the costs and benefits might land. We are interested in assessing the following impacts: - Trade flows: how imports and exports might change for the UK and its key trading partners - Volumes of production: changes in UK production (e.g. a function of domestic landings and imports) of fish products, under different scenarios. - Prices: price changes in relevant markets - Welfare impacts: changes in consumer and producer surplus in different modelled countries.