Quantify the impact of future land use scenarios to 2050 and beyond.

Tender description

Land excluding built-up areas (referred to here as 'non-developed land', which include agricultural land, woodlands and semi-natural habitats) is an important and finite resource. It provides a wide range of sometimes competing goods and services such as food, water, wildlife habitats, carbon storage, timber and bioenergy feedstocks, flood attenuation and green spaces for recreational activities. Choices on how non-developed land is used have a significant influence on reducing GHG emissions and preparing for the impacts of climate change. Therefore, the way that this land is managed and used is relevant both to the CCC's advice and analysis on reducing GHG emissions (mitigation) and to the ASC's advice on preparing for climate change (adaptation): • Carbon budgets have been legislated for 5 five-year periods from 2008 to 2032, at levels recommended by the CCC. In setting carbon budgets, we have estimated the contribution in emissions reduction from the two land-based sectors: agriculture and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF). • The level of preparedness to climate change in England is assessed across a range of land uses and related services, including agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, and flooding and water management. Looking further ahead, the use and management of non-developed land will play a crucial role in helping meet the Paris Agreement's ambitious target for net zero global emissions in the second half of this century, given land's current uniqueness amongst all sectors covered by the GHG national inventory to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and the possibility of combining biomass products with technologies such as carbon, capture and storage (CCS) to deliver negative emissions. It is against this background that we want to explore further how the use and management of land, soils, crops and livestock could deliver longer-term deeper emissions cuts, increased supply of bioenergy feedstocks and increased GHG removals in the UK agriculture and LULUCF sectors to 2050 and beyond, whilst at least maintaining resilience and other outputs.